🔗 Share this article An Forecasting Platform Trader Profited $Nearly Half a Million from Wagers on Venezuela's Political Shift. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. An individual made nearly half a million dollars by predicting the removal of Nicolás Maduro shortly prior to it was publicly declared, raising questions about the possibility of profiting from inside knowledge of the event. Sudden Shift in Predictions Predictions made on the forecasting site, an online prediction market, that the Venezuelan president would be out of power by the close of the month surged in the hours before Donald Trump stated on Saturday that Maduro had been taken into custody. A single trader, which became a member recently and took four positions, all on political events in Venezuela, made more than $nearly half a million from a starting bet of over $32,000. It remains unclear. This unidentified trader had only a blockchain identifier for identification. Odds Fluctuate Before Announcement Trading information shows that participants put the odds of the president's removal at just 6.5% in the late afternoon of the Friday before the event. But the market's assessment had climbed to over 10% by late Friday night and spiked dramatically in the first hours of the next day, indicating a sharp shift in market sentiment immediately prior to the official statement was made. "This specific wager has all the signs of a bet based on non-public details," stated an industry expert. A handful of other individuals also earned tens of thousands of dollars from predicting the capture. Legal Questions Intensifies Politicians are beginning to pay attention. A bill put forward on Monday seeks to ban government employees from placing bets on forecasting platforms if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a market. Market Background Forecasting platforms have surged in popularity in recent years, with users able to predict everything from sports to political events. The industry faced scrutiny under the last presidential term. However it has found a more favorable environment during the current presidency. Trading on insider information is illegal in the traditional financial markets, but there are less oversight in the prediction market industry. An official representative for a competing service said their site "has clear rules against trading on insider information of any form."